Provisional rolls for schools and kura 2023

Every September the Ministry notifies schools of their provisional roll, staffing and funding entitlements for the following year, to allow schools to make staffing decisions.

For the past two years some schools’ provisional rolls have been adjusted to minimise the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This year’s provisional rolls are informed by 2022 actual roll information, and for some schools there is a big difference – a lot has changed for all of us.

Some people have held off moving or leaving the country during the pandemic, there’s been an increase in houses being built, rising property prices have influenced where people live, young people are attracted to good jobs in a tight labour market, and some parents are starting their children at school later because of Covid. This all adds up to major changes in some schools’ rolls.

Resourcing schools based on the size of their rolls ensures that education funds are distributed fairly, meaning consistent class sizes, and staffing across New Zealand. It’s an important and ongoing contribution to equity of educational opportunities for our young people. Not adjusting staffing to take account of this is simply unfair to those in places where we need more teachers to support them.

We can help, and are helping, schools who are managing a continuously declining roll. 

A reduction in funding for staff may not mean that a school needs to cut teachers. In practice, often schools do not employ all the teachers they are funded for, for a variety of reasons. Some schools may not be able to fill positions, and some may choose to bank the funding and spend it on other things if they are confident that is in the best interests of their students.

If you have children at a school whose staffing entitlement is decreasing

Your child will not be in an overcrowded classroom and the provisional roll setting process is designed to avoid just that.

The actual number of teachers at your school may not reduce.  We tend to over-estimate staffing to enable schools to gradually manage large reductions in their rolls from year to year.  

For some schools roll reductions may be short-term, where we know there are more children in the area, but enrolments and attendance are currently low. If your roll increases your school can apply for a roll review and the Ministry will adjust funding for staff where such an increase is warranted. We are also providing some schools with special staffing support where they have experienced a temporary roll reduction due to COVID-19.

If you are a teacher at a school whose staffing entitlement is decreasing

Often schools do not employ all the teachers they are funded for, for a variety of reasons, and most schools can manage minor to moderate fluctuations in staffing. In practice, a reduction in staffing entitlement may not mean that jobs will be lost.

We are working with unions on identifying schools where jobs may be at risk and supporting potentially affected teachers. 

If you are a principal at a school whose staffing entitlement is decreasing

We know you are familiar with the roll setting process and are usually well prepared to adjust staffing in response to roll fluctuations, though we recognise that this year is particularly challenging for some.

If your provisional staffing entitlement is lower than last year, you can:

  • request a review of your provisional entitlement staffing;
  • ask the Ministry for additional roll growth funding at any time during the year;
  • request Special Reasons Staffing and Funding for situations that are exceptional and outside of the control or influence of your board; and
  • Use the surplus staffing process provided under the collective agreement.

Please talk to your Regional Office – we want to help. Schools that are experiencing any financial difficulty are encouraged to work with their Regional Office and School Financial Adviser.

If you are a Board member at a school whose staffing entitlement is decreasing

Please work with your principal to understand the implications for your school and come to an agreed approach for your funding priorities. There is a lot of flexibility for schools to do what is best for their own students, teachers, and communities.

The process for determining the 2023 provisional rolls and staffing entitlements for schools has included input from the Ministry’s regional offices, to ensure that we take specific circumstances relevant to the school and community into consideration.

But if school boards can demonstrate that our estimate of your provisional roll is at least 5% different to your own estimate, we will approve an increased provisional staffing entitlement.

Or if your roll keeps going up

School Boards can apply for extraordinary roll growth funding if their actual roll significantly exceeds the funded roll during the school year. Please contact your Regional Office.

What if our school’s roll bounces back quickly from Covid lows?

For some schools roll reductions may be short-term, where we know there are more children in the area, but enrolments and attendance are currently low. If your roll increases your school can apply for a roll review and the Ministry will adjust funding for staff where such an increase is warranted.

The overall teacher supply outlook

In New Zealand, there is a shortage of teachers in Māori-medium primary and secondary schools, as well as a high demand for secondary teachers of science, technology, mathematics and te reo Māori. There is also a high demand for teachers in Auckland and many isolated areas. Additionally, teachers are in demand for relief (supply) teaching.

Population shifts can present opportunities for teachers who wish to relocate, and they can apply for our Domestic Relocation Grant

The effect of the Equity Index on school funding

From January 2023, the Equity Index (EQI) will be used to determine a school’s level of equity funding, which replaces the decile system. Through Budget 2022 the Government has provided around a 50% ($75 million) increase in equity funding. So, we have more money, better targeted to address equity issues.

To limit annual fluctuations and better target funding, we’re also changing the way we distribute equity funding.

Find out more about the EQI

Other supports for schools

Budget 2023 included funding to address factors impacting low school attendance and disengagement from learning.  The package included $40 million over four years to establish a regional response fund to empower frontline decision making at a regional level to meet local education needs and better enable student engagement in learning. The initial focus for the funding will be to support local attendance and engagement initiatives.

Our tamariki and ākonga are more likely to attend when there are inclusive school cultures, supported by a curriculum that’s relevant and meaningful to them.  The budget package supports strategies aimed at strengthening school engagement practice, strengthening engagement through Te Tahuhu and the role of Te Mahau, empowering ākonga and their whanau to engage in education, and strengthening cross-government collaboration to address barriers to engagement.

Targets set out to address attendance and engagement are to:

  • Increase regular attendance to 70 percent by 2024, and 75 percent by 2026. Regular attendance is attending 90% of school hours or more.
  • Reduce moderate absence to less than six percent by 2024, and four percent by 2026. Moderate absence is attending between 70 and 80 percent of school hours.
  • Reduce chronic absence to less than five percent by 2024, and three percent by 2026. Chronic absence is attending 70 percent or less of school hours.
  • Other initiatives include working with the sector to introduce a target for schools and kura to notify whānau on the day of a child’s absence (for example by text) in 95 percent of cases and initiate an intervention after five days of unjustified absence a term.

Since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, the Government has provided a range of financial support to schools and kura. Examples of support include:

  • the Urgent Response Fund for short term relief from the consequences of COVID-19 which might otherwise create barriers to the education of children and young people; and
  • Extending the application criteria for additional relief funding for Terms 3 and 4, 2020 and again in Term 1, 2022.

As part of the 2022 provisional roll setting process, we made several adjustments to schools rolls to account for;

  • where we had intervened to manage growth by asking schools to reduce the number of out-of-zone students;
  • to assist with re-engaging students, improving student attendance, and catching up on student learning due to COVID-19 disruptions;
  • to ensure we are supporting the growth of the Māori Medium provision;
  • that are in known growth areas;
  • that were coming off a guaranteed notional roll; and
  • where we had previously over-estimated staffing requirements.

The adjustments made assisted schools to better manage the effects of COVID-19 in their community.

Budget 2022 included funding for Te Kura to bring the benefits of Te Kura’s intensive “Big Picture” delivery to its most at-risk students. The expected benefits of this are increased student engagement, education and well-being outcomes and possible successful return to a local school, where appropriate for the student.  This could cause fluctuations in school rolls as students are supported through Te Kura, but then potentially return to school.

Each year schools are supporting by the GMFS (guarantee minimum formula staffing) or Assured staffing provision.  This means when a school’s confirmed roll is lower than their provisional roll, their provisional staff is guaranteed for the year.

Over the last three years the number of schools that have been guaranteed staffing has continued to increase and in 2022 1,383 (56%) of schools were guarantee more staffing entitlement than what the actual roll generated. 

The following table shows the trend over the past four years.

Year

In Support

Not in Support

Total

2022

1,383

1,045

2,428

2021

1,165

1,258

2,423

2020

1,013

1,410

2,423

2019

919

1,498

2,417

In 2021, we guaranteed 1,212.9 FTTE in entitlement staffing to 1,165 schools as their confirmed roll were lower than their provisional roll.  In 2022, this has increased to 1,725.3 FTTE across 1,383 schools.  At an average cost of approximately $100,000 per teacher this is a substantial investment over the past two years.

Figures for 2023

A total national provisional staffing entitlement of 45,118.5 full time teacher equivalents (FTTE) has been calculated for 2023, which is a reduction of 351.50 FTTE compared to the 2022 provisional staffing entitlement.

These totals include special reasons staffing support and roll adjustments made between 18 August and 16 September 2022 following input from the Ministry’s regional teams.

The first draft of the provisional staffing entitlement had indicated a potential reduction of 776.4 FTTE. The number of FTTE has now been increased by 423.8 FTTE as the result of:

  • Providing 175.2 FTTE in targeted special reasons staffing to 128 schools and kura who are facing a COVID-19 related temporary roll reduction in 2023 (the Auckland region was provided with the highest level of special reasons staffing, with 49 schools and 71.7 FTTE approved).
  • Providing 145.72 FTTE to 54 schools across Auckland and Porirua to assist them with managing the COVID-19 related delays in the Kāinga Ora housing development projects.
  • 63 roll adjustments providing an additional 102.88 FTTE, primarily to very small schools.

Provisional Roll

Year Level

2022 Provisional Roll

2023 Provisional Roll

Difference

%

1

84,556

80,974

(3,582)

(4%)

2

62,735

58,829

(3,906)

(6%)

3

61,250

61,375

125

0%

4

61,952

60,341

(1,611)

(3%)

5

63,386

61,332

(2,054)

(3%)

6

63,006

62,741

(265)

0%

7

72,926

74,824

1,898

3%

8

66,273

62,852

(3,421)

(5%)

9

62,779

62,554

(225)

(0%)

10

61,867

61,405

(462)

(1%)

11

57,641

58,556

915

2%

12

47,658

47,829

171

0%

13

40,329

38,898

(1,431)

(4%)

14

343

459

116

34%

15

688

738

50

7%

Total

807,389

793,707

(13,682)

(2%)

By School Type

School type

Number of Schools

Provisional FTTE 2022

Provisional FTTE 2023

Difference

Contributing Primary

769

11,810.6

11,602.0

(208.6)

Full primary

1,029

9,839.8

9,738.6

 (101.2)

Intermediate

114

2,855.7

2,810.4

 (45.3)

Composite

150

2,921.7

2,927.8

 6.1

Secondary

331

17,398.6

17,380.1

 (18.5)

Specialist

36

643.6

659.6

 16.0

Total

2,429

45,470.0

 45,118.5

 (351.5)

By Region

Region

Schools

Provisional FTTE 2022

Provisional FTTE 2023

Difference

%

Tai Tokerau

148

1,941.5

1,922.7

 (18.8)

 (1%)

Auckland

524

14,777.9

14,678.1

 (99.8)

 (1%)

Waikato

274

4,284.2

4,263.1

 (21.1)

 (1%)

Bay of Plenty

184

3,658.0

3,600.3

 (57.7)

 (2%)

Hawkes Bay

171

2,468.6

2,425.3

 (43.3)

 (2%)

Whanganui

228

3,120.4

3,142.2

 21.8

 1%

Wellington

275

5,067.4

5,007.8

 (59.6)

(1%)

Nelson

123

1,705.0

1,673.1

(31.9)

 (2%)

Canterbury

272

5,387.6

5,378.5

 (9.1)

(0%)

Otago

230

3,059.4

3,027.4

 (32.)

 (1%)

Total

2,429

45,470.0

45,118.5

 (351.5)

(1%)

 

 

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