The updated projections show for primary schools a modest national surplus of 530 teachers in 2026 growing to a surplus of 1,350 by 2028. While secondary schools will have a national shortfall of around minus 710 teachers in 2026, reducing to minus 190 by 2028.

This year, technical enhancements are now providing a more nuanced view of the Auckland region, with projections now split into Auckland Central, South and North. This has identified a variable supply picture across the region.

To project how many teachers are needed over 3 years, the report considers the impact of many variables, including:

• roll growth
• Ministry-funded initiatives
• newly trained teachers entering the sector
• recruitment from overseas and
• the number of people returning to the profession.

While many of the supply projections at a national and regional level are showing improvements, we want to acknowledge the national position does not always reflect the supply challenges some individual schools and communities experience.

Key supply projection insights#

Key insights in the 2025 report are:

• We have more qualified teachers in the system (permanent, part-time and relief staff) than we have had in the last 20 years and preliminary enrolments in teacher training for primary and secondary have increased and are promising.
• Demand for teachers is expected to remain steady over the next 3 years at around 68,900 across the schooling sector (approximately 38,300 primary and 30,600 secondary teachers).
• An additional 26,740 teachers are expected to enter the system over the 3-year projection: 14,290 primary and 12,450 secondary teachers.
• Ministry of Education supply initiatives are having a positive impact - Ministry funded initiatives are expected to add 4,140 teachers (1,740 primary and 2,400 secondary teachers) to the system (based on a medium supply projection) over the next 3 years.
• By 2028, the supply projections are expected to shift to a surplus of 1,350 primary teachers, while an additional 190 secondary teachers will still be required.

National supply projections for 2026#

An additional 8,940 teachers (4,750 primary and 4,190 secondary teachers) are expected to enter the system in 2026:

• returning teachers are projected to increase by 2,450 primary and 2,310 secondary teachers
• new domestic trained teachers are projected to increase by 1,330 primary and 780 secondary teachers
• new overseas teachers are projected to increase by 390 primary and 300 secondary teachers
• Ministry-funded supply initiatives are projected to increase supply by 580 primary and 800 secondary teachers.

Areas with the greatest projected shortages and surpluses#

Greatest projected shortages by sector, as a proportion of regional demand:

• Taranaki (-5%) Northland (-4.5%) and Bay of Plenty (-3.7%) are facing the biggest challenges in the primary sector
• Auckland South and Southwest (-6.3%) Otago (-6.2%) and Auckland North and Northwest (-4.2%) are facing the biggest challenges in the secondary sector.

Greatest projected surpluses by sector, as a proportion of regional demand:

• Canterbury (+9.4%), Auckland Central (+8.4%) and Otago (+2.1%) are projecting surpluses in the primary sector
• Auckland Central (+0.8%) and Waikato (+0.2%) are projecting surpluses in the secondary sector.

Ongoing initiatives#

To ease teacher supply shortages, there are ongoing initiatives to attract and support people to enter the teaching profession. These include:

• In 2026, the Ministry launched Go Rural, a fund providing financial support for up to 123 student teachers to take up placements as part of their training in rural and isolated schools.
• Around 460 scholarships to train as a teacher are awarded each year. Scholarships are prioritised for those wanting to teach in difficult to recruit subjects: STEM and te reo Māori and are typically fully subscribed.
• In 2025, we launched its Teacher Bonding Scheme, providing additional financial incentive for 185 teachers to take up new roles in eligible priority staffing schools.
• Investment in Budget 2024 established the School Onsite Training Programme (SOTP) programme to train classroom-ready teachers for those not enrolling in traditional ITE programmes and additional investment in Budget 2025 expanded the programme by 530 places to 1,861 over 4 years.
• The Ministry is providing up to 65 funding awards every 2 years supporting both kura and those on a Limited Authority to Teach to train to be a Kaiako as part of the 2-year Kaupapa Māori | Māori Medium Employment-based Initial Teacher Education (EBITE) Programme Funding Award.